A pair of 7-6 SU teams face off indoors this afternoon as Mitch Trubisky and the rested Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Indianapolis Colts, who sit as -2.5-point favorites on the NFL odds board.
With an indoor setting, Trubisky and this offense getting more time, the Indy defense struggling to stop anyone, and the Steelers’ defense banged up and not looking great in prime time, should bettors continue to pile on Colts Overs?
I break down the Week 15 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Colts on December 16.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Steelers vs. Colts player props and Zack Moss prop picks for more great wagers!
Steelers vs Colts odds
Steelers vs Colts predictions
It’s no secret that sharp bettors love the Indianapolis Colts’ Overs this year. Shane Steichen’s offense is competent and runs plays at one of the fastest rates in all of football. They sit in the Top 10 in plays per game and that’s with having an offense that converts third downs at a Bottom-10 rate.
It’s a reliable offense that ranks between the Lions and Jaguars in points per game and averages 26.5 points per game at home on the season. They just finished a four-game winning streak and managed to score 27 or more in five of their last seven games including twice in losses.
The defense is where things get sexy in this game as an Over backer at 42. Only two other teams allow more points per game at home than the Colts at a whopping 28.8 per contest. That’s an average total score of 55.3 at home this season. They’re scoring 26.5 points per game there and still have a negative point differential. Those home games also include zero opponents with Top-10 offenses, per success rate.
This is a defense that gave up 34 points to Jake Browning and the Bengals last week who went three for five in the red zone on Sunday.
Bettors already moved this from a look-ahead of 40 to 42. The Pittsburgh Steelers looked bad in primetime which is likely suppressing the number, but that was a bad spot for the Pittsburgh offense last Thursday on the short week, with a backup QB, facing an elite defense in the Patriots.
The public perception is low on the Steelers which is fine by me. As long as Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have their heads on straight and perform, this offense, coupled with Jaylen Warren’s emergence, can move the ball on Saturday. The Colts have been one of the worst rush defenses since Halloween.
Some possible defensive injuries are also in the Over’s favor. TJ Watt entered the concussion protocol on Saturday morning, and although he does have extra time to recover, his absence would move the numbers. Linebacker Alex Highsmith also exited Week 14 for the Steelers and is questionable.
The Colts could be without starting linebacker AJ Speed who was looking more doubtful early in the week while corner JuJu Brents has missed six games in a row.
The injuries are on the Over’s side and the Colts are 6-2 to the Over across their last eight games and 5-1 O/U at home this year indoors.
My best bet: Over 42 (-105 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Steelers vs Colts same-game parlay
Over 41.5Pat Freiermuth 50+ receiving yardsJaylen Warren Over 44.5 rush yards25% boost available
+625 + 781 at FanDuel
Going a little bigger here. The Over is where my best bet lies but Jaylen Warren has a great matchup this week after facing the No.1 rush defense last week. He has been the much more efficient runner despite fewer carries and leads all RBs (minimum 100 carries) in yards per carry at 5.6.
Pat Freiermuth is just two weeks removed from a 100-plus-yard game. He had a season-high route share last week and should garner around 20% of the target share on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
SGP Promo25% boost for 3+ leg NFL SGPOur +625 SGP BOOSTS to +781
Sign Up OfferCreate a new account and bet $5 on a moneyline wager — get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins!
Claim Now at
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER